Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 271119 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH FROPA.
THE LATEST RADAR SCANS SHOW THE LINE WEAKENING FURTHER SOUTH OF CRP
BUT DEWPOINTS STILL RANGE BETWEEN 75 TO 79 DEGREES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH SE WINDS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
CRP AREA COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF BROOKS AND
KENEDY. AS A RESULT INCREASE POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST TODAY...EXPECT FROPA TO ARRIVE BY MID DAY WITH
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE
DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND IT WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE LATEST AQI KEEPS US
UNDER A MODERATE AIR QUALITY AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY BUT AS THE
FRONT MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR THE HAZE AND MIST
TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVE THE CWA A
BREAK OF THE AGRICULTURAL BURNING SMOKE. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL
CLEAR SKY CONDITION ALLOWING FOR MORE DAYTIME MIXING TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT RANGING FROM 90 TO 93 DEGREES ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA WITH A RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKY WITH A FEW CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER TO MID TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT THE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE  IT THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY. THE BREEZE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWERING TREND WITH THIS LOW
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR
80S ALONG THE RGV. THIS WILL POSSIBLY BE THE LAST TIME WE WILL SEE TEMPS
THIS LOW UNTIL FALL. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE AREA THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS NIL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS ARKANSAS/EAST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TX WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A 500MB RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL
SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX THURSDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY
ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO GRADUALLY
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TODAY SHIFTING
WINDS TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL NOT INCREASE
AS MUCH TODAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAX. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH BUILDING SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUES
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES
EASTWARD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  67  78  59 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  66  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            92  65  79  55 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  66  82  57 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  63  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  69  76  61 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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