Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO TEXAS THIS
AFTN. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SPILLING INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. LOWER PRESSURE IS OVER WEST TEXAS UNDER
DIFFLUENT H5 FLOW ALOFT. DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA H5 LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS
CONVECTION IN MEXICO THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...BUT RADAR THUS FAR
PICKING UP ONLY A FEW WEAK RETURNS. HAVE THUS KEPT ISOLATED
CONVECTION OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT
EAST ON TUESDAY HEADING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND OPENING UP.
DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MEXICO WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TUESDAY...WITH LOCAL HIGH TEMPS GETTING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S UNDER BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LAST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM
MAY BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS TO THE WEST...DRIFTING
TOWARD THE CWA...AS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER QUIET.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT...SAVE FOR ANY
LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS SNEAKING INTO THE UPPER VALLEY EARLY IN THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WHILE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST MOVES ACROSS CA. UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM WEST TO
EAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE REGION IN A CONVERGENT
FLOW OVER SOUTH TX. NEAR THE SURFACE...RIDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL W TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH FEW TO
BKN CLOUD DECK. THIS SE FLOW AT 850 MB WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
IN THIS LAYER INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER. THE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
NOT VERY DEEP LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO START
FIRING UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THEN THE TROUGH DEEPENS
AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PUTTING THE
LOWER VALLEY UNDER A PERSISTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 700 MB WHICH WILL KEEP A CAP OVER THE AREA LIMITING ANY
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THIS
COULD SNEAK INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ZAPATA COUNTY..PORTION OF JIM
HOGG AND STARR COUNTY WITH LESS CHANCE THE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
COAST. THE 850-700MB RH WITH MOISTURE TRANS VECTOR DEPICT BETTER
MOISTURE POOLS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A DRIER SLOT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO PREVAILING OVER THE GULF SURGING INLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT
ANY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BUT FAVORING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL
OVER THE NW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE OF A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
SATURDAY THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERLY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY.

ONCE THAT TROUGH MOVES EAST ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST RETURNING BRIEFLY THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRES REMAINS DOMINANT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE NORTH GULF...COUNTERBALANCED BY
SOMEWHAT LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
RESULT IN SCEC CONDITIONS THERE TNGT. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST A
SKOSH HIGHER ON THE GULF...ALNG WITH SLIGHTLY BIGGER WAVE HEIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE IN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. THERE
IS SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT COULD ENHANCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT
NOT STRONG. THIS SE FETCH WILL INCREASE WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCEC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AGAIN SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA.
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  83  75  83 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          73  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            72  86  74  87 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              73  87  75  88 /  10  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      72  87  74  90 /  10  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  80  75  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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