Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  68  81  71 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  67  84  71 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            85  67  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              87  67  87  71 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  65  87  69 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  70  77  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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