Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241130 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT AT THE BRO AERODROME
WITH HRL AND MFE ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER. KBRO DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
RIGHT NOW...BRINGING AN END TO THE CONVECTION THAT RAGED JUST A
FEW HOURS AGO. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS. DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FOG FORMATION FORECAST AND
DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND AWAY FROM THE
AERODROMES...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...ESPECIALLY
FOR AERODROME MFE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...KBRO DOPPLER RADAR NOTES
STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR RIGHT NOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE INTRUSION OF A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF NUEVO LEON...COAHUILA...AND
TAMAULIPAS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WERE REALIZED ON
THURSDAY...THEREFORE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
EXPERIENCED AGAIN FOR THIS DAY.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB
TROUGH. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ENTIRE BRO CWFA IN A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE OFFICIAL FORTHCOMING ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEAR
MISS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED CAREFULLY BY
FORTHCOMING SHIFTS.

SATURDAY...DISSIPATION OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SHOULD LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER WEAK 500
MB TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OVER THE
AREA FOR CONVECTION MOVING DOWN FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY.
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH...OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND MORE
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY... BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 6 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
1.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY CAUSE A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN WINDS AND BUILDING OF SEAS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PRODUCED BY THE TUESDAY MORNING PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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