Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 011103 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TO
REINFORCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
FOG IMPACT THE THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS SUNRISE SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE. THURSDAY EVENING SOUNDING
INDICATED PWATS OF AROUND 1 INCH WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ADVERTISING A FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES SATURDAY. MEAN
RH LEVELS ALSO ARE INDICATED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, BELOW 30
PERCENT, BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS
REPLACED WITH A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF RAINFREE AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW COMMENCES LATER
TODAY BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ON
SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE, BUT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW IMPACT LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY A BIT THICKER SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY, TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY REMAIN A BLEND OF THE NEARLY IDENTICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AND JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE
PRECIPITATION ENDED LAST WEEKEND...IT WILL KICK BACK IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN THE REGION SUNDAY...BUT GENERAL UPPER
FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE IN ALOFT...LEADING TO MORE
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY...WITH A QUICK RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PW VALUES WILL ALREADY REACH
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE NEXT TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...MOST OF TEXAS REMAINS IN FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN VALLEY IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MIDWEEK...WITH TIMING OF SMALLER VORTS STILL AN ISSUE.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. END RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AND NEARLY
FLAT SEAS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NW GULF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SFC LOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING
ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT. LONGER GULF FETCH EXPECTED WILL PRODUCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SWELLS BY TUESDAY...REACHING 3 TO 4 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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