Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 301827 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
127 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY
FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS WITH A VERY DRY PWAT OF ONLY 0.67 INCHES AND
NIL CAPE. A DRY W-N FLOW IS EVIDENT AT PRETTY MUCH ALL LEVELS OF
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH
MIDDAY TOMORROW. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLD DECKS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE FLOW GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT EXPECT SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO FORM IN THE RGV
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SERIOUS REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z FRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER BETWEEN KLRD AND KBRO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. DRY AIR IN PLACE TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...EVEN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY THERE REMAINS A
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVERHEAD. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABNORMALLY DRY AFTER TWO DAYS OF BRISK NORTH WINDS BUT EVEN ALL
GOOD LATE APRIL FRONTS HAVE TO COME TO AN END. THE BASE OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS OR DAMPENS OUT AS IT
PASSES TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. POPS REMAIN AT ZERO WITH MEAN RH LEVELS BELOW 50
PERCENT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS THE COOL POOL WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN
NEARING BUT NOT QUITE REACHING NORMALS MAY 1ST. EVEN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY 850 TEMPS ONLY RISE ARE NOTED BETWEEN
12-15C DEGREES WHICH IS BELOW THE 25 PERCENTILE FOR END OF
APRIL/EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...GREAT WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS H5 RIDGE DOMINATES
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STARTING SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS RETURNING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. LATEST RUNS ARE EJECTING THE TROUGH FASTER TO THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...MORE INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA VS PREVIOUS RUNS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS KEEPS WINDS ALOFT FROM THE NW UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS DRIER AIR IN PLACE LONGER. THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH ALSO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK LESS LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE CENTER OR AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY.
NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS TO
NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS DOES NOT MOVE ALL THAT FAR EAST FRIDAY
MAINTAINING A LIGHT GRADIENT ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 2
FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES KEEPING SEAS PRETTY
CLOSE TO A FOOT. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WILL AGITATE SEAS UP TO
AROUND 3 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  62  80  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          61  83  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            58  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              59  86  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  76  67  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55/58
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58



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