Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221656 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1156 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION AND REGULAR FORECASTS.
THOUGH IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY LOW AND ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DO FORM THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED
AND LIMITED IN DURATION AND/OR COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND WILL HELP INHIBIT DEEP DEVELOPMENT. REMOVED SEVERE
WORDING FROM THE REGULAR FORECAST IN FAVOR OF HWO AND AFD MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STABLE SOUNDING HAVE
KEPT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS GOING AT THE TAF SITES. THE TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY. CEILINGS MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER MFE...AND MAY LIFT TO VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MIX OF MVFR AND LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY WITH
DAY TIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
MAINLY AFTER 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ELEVATED TODAY. THE 0Z BRO SOUNDING
INDICATES A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.76 INCHES. THE COMBINATION
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION
TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRIER AIR WORKS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS
LATER TODAY AND ALLOWS SOME MILD CAPPING TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I-69E/HIGHWAY
77 CORRIDOR WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH ZAPATA COUNTY BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CRP CWFA AND MOST OF TEXAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS SUGGESTS CONVECTION INITIATING
OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON DUE
TO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST 500 MB FLOW ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THAT CONVECTION THEN
ADVECTING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR...WITH A MUCH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
EAST OF THAT LINE. AFTER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...THE REST
OF FORECAST APPEARS MAINLY DRY AND QUIET...EXCEPT FOR THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND HOT...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTS
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS PRODUCED BY THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT ON THAT DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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