Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 010528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER HEAD TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST MAINTAINING THE LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS. VERY SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH VSBY MAYBE LOWERING TO 5 MILES NEAR
THE AIR FIELDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 TO
14Z...WITH REDUCTIONS TO VSBY BETWEEN 5 TO 6 SM POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH
0Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
500 MB RIDGING TO BUILD EASTWARDS. THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING
PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY FOR THE AREA WITH A VERY DRY PWAT OF
ONLY 0.67 INCHES AND NIL CAPE. A DRY W-N FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT AT
PRETTY MUCH ALL LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING. THIS DRY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE E-SE THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DEWPOINT ADVECTION AND THE WAA. SO
OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD WARM THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MAV/MET/ECMWF
TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A GENERAL SHORT TERM MODEL BLEND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ALL IN ALL PRETTY NICE
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PREVAILS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW.
WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REESTABLISHED...MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWWEST TUESDAY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS WELL...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND SUPPORT IS LOCATED. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 700
MAY STRENGTHEN THE CAP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE PGF WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS AND SEAS
PRETTY CALM. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FIRMLY REESTABLISHING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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