Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271854 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 254 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. JUST LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT, LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S, PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO 8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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