Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190247 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1047 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1047 PM EDT SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 412 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DRY AND SEASONAL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TURNS UNSETTLED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH 0.75 TO 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AS A STRONG 925-850MB JET OF 40-60KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THINKING GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS TOP OUT AROUND 40MPH. LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S COOLEST IN THE EAST WITH COOL UPSLOPE SE FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 412 PM EDT... UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY/NIGHT. AN OCCLUSION WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A TRIPLE POINT OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT. LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE SEEING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE REGION. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S TO EVEN A SPOT 60F. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...POISED TO SEND MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT ITSELF SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AS PIECES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATE AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THE MOST ROBUST WAVE OF ENERGY IS HINTED AT CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...WITH SOME FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT NIGHT...TO MOSTLY SNOW AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -1C TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MOST. BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE FINALLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE REGION AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOW PLACE THE REGION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIME OF DAY AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT. TEMPERATURES ALSO QUITE SIMILAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS THE 30S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 20S IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTH WINDS ABATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN CEILINGS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER. HOWEVER LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE, INFERRED BY SHARP CLEARING IN LATE- AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY REGION, WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND LEAD TO FURTHER CLEARING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE NORTHERLY GUSTS WILL ABATE IN SHORT ORDER, NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW OVER RHODE ISLAND AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, GRADIENT SLACKENS RESULTING IN LIGHTER NORTHERLIES (3-6 KTS). VFR SKC CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE REGION, NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM SW- NE. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI

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