Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011959 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S. FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED 18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F, THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED. WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. 00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. 12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR. 06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW. 00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH

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