Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171709 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY! && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. 00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...NASH

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