Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271949 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 349 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS KEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS THE LAST SEVERAL DAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE TUESDAY MORNING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 254 PM EDT MONDAY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DISAGREEMENT, LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME TO A CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WORKS IN OUR FAVOR WITH DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE JUST PHASED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FORMING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY NIGHTFALL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER THE FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INSTEAD SUPPORTING A NICE BIT OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SKIES WON`T EXACTLY BE CLEAR, BUT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S, PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN. A WEAK LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AGAIN. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 06Z AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS CONTINUES TO PIVOT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM 10-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TOWARDS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND ABATING TO 8-12 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14-15Z TUESDAY UP TOWARDS 20KTS AGAIN. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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