Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 022244 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 644 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING ON MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 644 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE CONTINUED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS ZERO AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK 5H VORT AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ENERGY ALOFT AND VERY LIMITED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MTNS OF VT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK LIFT...AND VERY MINIMAL SFC INSTABILITY...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 5-7C TODAY AND WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN6-8C. THESE PROFILES WITH GOOD MIXING...PER DRY SOUNDINGS AND SOME SUN...SUPPORT HIGHS MID 60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ONCE AGAIN A LAKE BREEZY BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT...WITH TEMPS 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NE CONUS...AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES ON MONDAY...BUT MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MAY IMPACT HEATING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GIVEN GOOD MIXING AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 8 AND 9C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. THINKING BTV COULD REACH 80 DEGREES FOR THE 1ST TIME THIS YEAR. IN ADDITION...TO THE WARM TEMPS...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS GRADIENT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT INCREASES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHEAST VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE SOUNDING AT BTV SHOWS GOOD MIXING THRU 6KFT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN VALLEYS AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN DRIER AIR ALOFT...TO PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30% ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS CONT TO LOOK FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 FT OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN SHADOWING OF PRECIPITATION FIELDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE SW UPSLOPE REGION OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS IN VT...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH IS NARROW...SO OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS. THINKING QPF WILL BE A TENTH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S MTNS TO LOWER 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 242 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY....WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CLEAR NIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RETURN OF CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COOLING AS MUCH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT PBG AND BTV THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL GUST 15-18 KNOTS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOWS A DEFICIT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY INTO VERMONT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH ONLY A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. ANY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 28% AND 38% BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THAN RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VT AND NY. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS BELOW 2000 FEET AND LIMITED AREAS OF GREEN UP PER COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE USERS...SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MIN RH`S...TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND SPEEDS.
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&& .MARINE... WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE LAKE AND RIVER WATERS ARE STILL QUITE COLD. BELOW IS A REMINDER ABOUT COLD WATER SAFETY. EARLY IN THE BOATING SEASON...WATER TEMPERATURES ON RIVERS...PONDS AND LAKES REMAIN RATHER COLD. IMMERSION IN COLD WATER CAN BE LIFE THREATENING VERY QUICKLY DUE TO HYPOTHERMIA AND THE BODIES INABILITY TO WORK EFFICIENTLY IN THE COLD WATER. THEREFORE...IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CONSIDER POSTPONING SMALL CRAFT BOATING ACTIVITIES UNTIL WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME WARMER. HOWEVER...IF YOU CHOOSE TO VENTURE OUT...WEAR ALL RECOMMENDED COLD WATER PROTECTIVE GEAR...INCLUDING A LIFE JACKET...IN THE EVENT OF AN ACCIDENT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS FIRE WEATHER...TABER MARINE...WFO BTV

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