Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201926 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM UPDATE. MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1" ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID- LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011- 016>019. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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