Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040800 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD DROPS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS BELOW 2000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ON TUESDAY RETURNING THE REGION TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY... FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS THE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TODAY TO DISCUSS THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS. WE WILL DRY OUT TODAY BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL WARM THE AREA VERY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THUS OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY WELL MIXED UP TO 7000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTING 20-30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 15-20KTS ACROSS VERMONT. THE DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO WARM INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW WITH 80F BEING A REAL POSSIBILITY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN STILL BEING QUITE COLD THE AIR TEMP OVER THE LAKE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND SO ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE I`VE ONLY GOT MAX TEMPS TODAY WARMING TO AROUND 70 AND THE NEAR SHORE AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY... BY 23Z THIS EVENING OR 7PM, EXPECT THE FIRST SHOWERS TO START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND MEETS MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT IT TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SEE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BECOME SHADOWED FROM THE SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER EXPECT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO COMBING WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB VORT AXIS AND PRODUCE A FEW MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXPECTING TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.30". SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WEAKER INSTABILITY I CHOSE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST BUT IT WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH NEW YORK. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. WE WILL THEN MOVE INTO A PATTERN OF NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OCCUR.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY... DRY AND SPRING-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY ...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOWING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 13Z-15Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 02Z-06Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH FIRE WEATHER...TABER/DEAL

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