Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180732 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 331 AM EDT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW- MOVING...BROAD/CLOSED 500MB LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THRU THE S-SE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATE WILL BRING BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT 06-18Z TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED 70-80 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH QPF AMTS 0.20-0.40" POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM WITH LOW OVERCAST AND RAINFALL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTN HRS. HAVE INDICATED MID-UPR 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN VT. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WED-FRI. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY CARRIED 30-40 POPS THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGH WED-FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S...AND LOCALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS 16-21Z...POSSIBLY IMPACTING PBG/BTV/MPV. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT THIS POINT...WITH LOCAL TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR -SHRA AT MPV WHERE GREATEST PROSPECT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BECOMING WESTERLY WITH MIXING LATER THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS FLOW SHIFTS MORE NWLY 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE AND WITH DEEP PBL MIXING. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH AND DIMINISHING SLOWLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY - 03Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 03Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW-NE. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS FIRE WEATHER...WGH

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