Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051924 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 324 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...LASTING RIGHT THOUGH THE WORKWEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE DANGER. CONDITIONS THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH OFFERS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING TRAILS BACK TO A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN NORTHEASTWARD. THE BOUNDARY ITSELF REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH, BUT AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SO NOT A COMPLETELY CLEAR NIGHT, BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO STOP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUICKLY TONIGHT EITHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REBOUND FROM LOW AFTERNOON VALUES WITH THE FALLING TEMPS. LOOKING AT LOWS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN MESSAGE IN THIS PERIOD IS HIGH AND DRY, AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRETTY SIMILAR EACH DAY AND NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRODUCING SIZABLE DIURNAL RANGES WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME SUN AND SHARP COOLING AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LARGELY TERRAIN/LAKE- BREEZE DRIVEN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND EXTREMELY DRY FINE FUELS MAKING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES. FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS, SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THERMAL FIELDS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C AT 850 MB BY THURSDAY. WE SHOULD MIX TO THIS LEVEL AT LEAST, BUT LIKELY EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT. AFTER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS DUE TO SUNSHINE AND DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE UPPER 70S/SPOT 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE, STILL HAVE A GOOD RESERVOIR OF 925-700 MB DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN, BUT GUIDANCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER EACH DAY. IT MEANS DEWPOINTS AREN`T LIKELY TO FALL QUITE AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO AFTERNOON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, DUE TO ROUGHLY OFFSETTING EFFECTS FROM WARMING AIR TEMPS AND GRADUAL RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT. LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECOND LOW PASSES EVEN CLOSER TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT SEEING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ON SATURDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH NO PRECIPIATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING SCT TO OCCNLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 20 TO 30 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY-12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 12Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF VERMONT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG CONDITION ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION, ONE- AND TEN-HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION (UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM LAST NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE). FUTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE, AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...JMG FIRE WEATHER...LOCONTO MARINE...LOCONTO

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