Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251915 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 315 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 118 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M 40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH, CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES... LOWERING TO INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (2500-3000FT) OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS (PBG AND RUT BEING THE EXCEPTIONS) AFTER 11Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR (3500FT OR BETTER) FOR ALL AREAS AROUND 14Z. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD (15Z) COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTIAN LOCALS...BUT DON`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN ANY ONE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR TODAY...GIVING AWAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...STEADYING TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

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