Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241751 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL, PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF SNOW. SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION). TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE, SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE SAT MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...DEAL/MV

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