Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 060752 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...LASTING RIGHT THOUGH THE WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CONDITIONS THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH OFFERS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 124 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION HAVE MAINLY MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW OVER THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN MESSAGE IN THIS PERIOD IS HIGH AND DRY, AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRETTY SIMILAR EACH DAY AND NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRODUCING SIZABLE DIURNAL RANGES WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME SUN AND SHARP COOLING AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LARGELY TERRAIN/LAKE- BREEZE DRIVEN AS WELL. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND EXTREMELY DRY FINE FUELS MAKING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES. FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS, SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THERMAL FIELDS WARM BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, UP TO AROUND +10 TO +11C AT 850 MB BY THURSDAY. WE SHOULD MIX TO THIS LEVEL AT LEAST, BUT LIKELY EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT. AFTER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS DUE TO SUNSHINE AND DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, LOOKING AT HIGHS INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE UPPER 70S/SPOT 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM A MOISTURE PERSPECTIVE, STILL HAVE A GOOD RESERVOIR OF 925-700 MB DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN, BUT GUIDANCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER EACH DAY. IT MEANS DEW POINTS AREN`T LIKELY TO FALL QUITE AS MUCH AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO AFTERNOON MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, DUE TO ROUGHLY OFFSETTING EFFECTS FROM WARMING AIR TEMPS AND GRADUAL RISE IN DEW POINTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY...MOST LIKELY DRAPED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL BE A PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER. ALSO...TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BE ANOTHER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN SET UP. TROPICAL LOW INFLUENCES AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING IT LIKELY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD DIFFERENTLY...BUT THEN COME CLOSER INTO LINE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZY TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT PBG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BTWN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIGS IN A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME LOCALIZED TERRAIN EFFECTS AT PBG AND RUTLAND. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 124 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG CONDITION ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. IN ADDITION, ONE- AND TEN-HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION (UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM LAST NIGHT`S FRONTAL PASSAGE). FURTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE, AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19, AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15. && .MARINE... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES FIRE WEATHER...LOCONTO MARINE...LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.