Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021648 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1248 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS...AND TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZY BOUNDARY. CRNT OBS AT COLCHESTER REEF IS 48F WHILE AT THE AIRPORT AT BTV OUR TEMP IS 72F. OTHERWISE...A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TRRN AS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S MTNS TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WARMER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 322 AM SATURDAY...THE WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF WARMER WEATHER DURING THE DAY TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 6-7C IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY DRY VERTICAL PROFILE LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 322 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOLIDLY INTO THE REGION. THE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPS TO THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ON SUNDAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE VORT CROSSES THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 800MB. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BUT RIGHT NOW WITH SREF CALIBRATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN 10%, I`VE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLING FOR RAIN. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES AT THE VERY END OF THE SHORT TERM MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ONE THING STANDS OUT CLEARLY, ITS NO LONGER A WINTER WONDERLAND IN VERMONT, WELL AT LEAST IN THE VALLEYS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMING RAPIDLY UNDER THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WILL WARM TO 8-9C ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 9-11C ON MONDAY. THAT WILL TURN INTO MID 70S FOR MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS OF LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 343 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND SPRING-LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY-18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE LAKE AND RIVER WATERS ARE STILL QUITE COLD. BELOW IS A REMINDER ABOUT COLD WATER SAFETY. EARLY IN THE BOATING SEASON...WATER TEMPERATURES ON RIVERS...PONDS AND LAKES REMAIN RATHER COLD. IMMERSION IN COLD WATER CAN BE LIFE THREATENING VERY QUICKLY DUE TO HYPOTHERMIA AND THE BODIES INABILITY TO WORK EFFICIENTLY IN THE COLD WATER. THEREFORE...IT IS RECOMMENDED TO CONSIDER POSTPONING SMALL CRAFT BOATING ACTIVITIES UNTIL WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME WARMER. HOWEVER...IF YOU CHOOSE TO VENTURE OUT...WEAR ALL RECOMMENDED COLD WATER PROTECTIVE GEAR...INCLUDING A LIFE JACKET...IN THE EVENT OF AN ACCIDENT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH MARINE...WFO BTV

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