Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261913 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 313 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK 925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND +1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN CRNT THINKING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S ANOTHER DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK, AND BASICALLY IT`S A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SIDE OF THE COIN FEATURES A COASTAL BOMB, THE OTHER DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WHERE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY. WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THAT`S WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SPAWN A COASTAL LOW. WHILE SOME AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE PHASING, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW DIFFER. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS OFF THE 500MB FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE TRI-STATE AREA (CT/NJ/NY). THE RESULTING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW PUSHES THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE ON THE ECMWF, WHILE THE GFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT, LIKELY A HYBRID OF BOTH SO WILL PLAY SOME CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, TEMPS SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE HIGHER SUMMITS. LOOKING OUT FURTHER TO NEXT WEEKEND, IT SEEMS WE MIGHT HAVE SOME NICE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON STATION AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

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