Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311720 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 120 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT DAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT. THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU 180 HOURS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NASH

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