Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 070801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY NEARS THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 121 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH 1021 MB HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS....RESULTING IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S NEK/SLK TO MID 40S CPV. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN LARGELY IN CONTROL. THUS LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY (LOW-MID 30S) BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY WARMING TEMPERATURES...SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT MID 40S TO LOW 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...OPENING UP PARTS OF THE REGION TO SOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW... WITH WINDS PEAKING 10-15 KNOTS AT MOST...HIGHEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT TO ORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED TO MOST OF VT/NNY. WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AND FRONTAL FEATURE NEAR-BY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN. DEW POINTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE GIVES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT. BUT AS MENTIONED WINDS NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY 50-60F WITH A FEW 40S IN THE NEK/ADK AND LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 358 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY EVENING WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +14C ON SUNDAY. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS SOUTH. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING OFF A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN 40S MIDWEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT...THEN WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS THURSDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHERLY IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... O6Z FRIDAY-12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ONE AND TEN HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE...AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19TH...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15TH. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS FIRE WEATHER...MUCCILLI

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