Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252303 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 703 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 632 PM EDT SATURDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND NEAR TERM TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN VERMONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM CANADA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH, CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TREND TO VFR/MVFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER, A UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD. I`VE SHOWN CEILINGS DIPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY, BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN QUEBEC, CEILINGS MAY OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY, BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS AT ANY TAF SITE. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE SHOWN VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO BE AROUND. WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO/MV

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