Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311144 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO START ERODING THE CLOUD COVER A BIT FASTER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE... REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE FOR DRIER WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT. THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU 180 HOURS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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