Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171936 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 336 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS). DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW... MONDAY: GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT, THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S) WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS. TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S. WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY. LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE, THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT) TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS. NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS. AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. 00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH

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