Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310509 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM... INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM 21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA- WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT, THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES

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