Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301712 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 112 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1219 PM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MIXING SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE UNDER SOLID CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1017 AM MONDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. SEEING CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOWING UP DOWNWIND OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS MODEST SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AND MIXING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAKING ON MORE OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TURN MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS 15 TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LIKELY. SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WAITS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS WILL BE ENDING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND RUN QUICKLY ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL FURTHER THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A VERY BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE WONT BE QUITE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY AND THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD PRONE AREAS TO DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS BOTH HOLDING IN THE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE OUT OF THE REGION LEAVING BEHIND DRY AIR UNDER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND DRY WITH A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...A FAST/PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...BRINGING CHANGABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE AND 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...THOUGH MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN PA/WRN NY AND SERN ONTARIO. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE START OF APRIL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. MAY SEE A FEW READINGS 10-15F ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH ANTICIPATED LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDINESS. WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY FROM SW-NE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MAY SEE AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO +3 TO +5C BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKEWISE BE TRENDING WARMER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS WITH DEVELOPING FAST SW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN FAST SW FLOW LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER THURSDAY AFTN OR THURSDAY NIGHT. CARRIED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-500MB FLOW REMAINING SWLY...DON/T FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY...DESPITE W-NW SFC WIND SHIFT. LIKELY STILL SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 40S. EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER RIVER ICE BREAKUP...BUT LIMITED QPF (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50") WILL KEEP RIVER FLOWS RELATIVELY LOW AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD THREAT. BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST FRONTAL ZONE STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE BNDRY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS PCPN POTENTIALLY INTENSIFIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...JMG

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