Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240757 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 357 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR. RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL, PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF SNOW. SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION). TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE, SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD - VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV

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