Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261141 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN FINE SHAPE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO 700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK 925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND +1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN CRNT THINKING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND. DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS REGION. RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW

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