Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050751 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 351 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A WEAKER WIND FIELD AND LESS MIXING THAN MONDAY ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING A FEW GUSTS IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR MPV WILL REACH IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT DRIER AIR AROUND 850MB WHERE THE DWPTS FALL BELOW 0C MIXING TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 23% TO 33% RANGE....WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTN TOWNS TO L70S IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN AT 5 TO 15 MPH DAILY. EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT ON TUES NIGHT WITH 1028 MB SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS BY WEDS MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE PROTECTED MTN VALLEYS TO M/U 30S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED STARTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 6 TO 8C...WITH DRY AIR MASS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S MTN TOWNS TO L/M 70S WARMER VALLEYS. WILL TREND COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT NIGHT AND WARMER DURING THE DAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT. LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECOND LOW PASSES EVEN CLOSER TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT SEEING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ON SATURDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND HAVE COVERED IT WITH TEMPO GROUPS. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN VERMONT AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES LOWER INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS ARE CRITICALLY LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUN...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FURTHER DRYING OF THE 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. && .MARINE... AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON MARINE...WGH

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