Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310804 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT. THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU 180 HOURS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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