Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161930 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH

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