Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011726 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 126 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 104 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE... MAINLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THOSE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE. EARLIER DISCUSSION... MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY MODESTLY MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. THUS THE IDEA OF VARIABLE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE STILL APPEARS REASONABLE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST, PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN THE SLV. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE DRY WEATHER WILL REIGN THE DAY. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...BY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY TO ONE OF MORE CONTINENTAL CHARACTER WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDING MORE WESTERLY AND ANTICYCLONIC OVER TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MODEST WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT A TAD TRICKY GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR. AT THIS POINT USED A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF DOWNSCALED NAM OUTPUT FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SHOWING VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45, THOUGH THIS COULD BE A BIT COOL FOR A FEW SPOTS GIVEN RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. BY SATURDAY 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE 12-13C ACROSS OUR AREA UNDER A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THUS THE IDEA OF MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST AN OUTSTANDING SPRING WEEKEND DAY ON TAP. THEN MORE OF THE SAME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/PC SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OR SO. ON SUNDAY A DAMPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SMALL RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE WITH CONTINUED PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER HERE AND THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT IN GENERAL DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR MOST. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 328 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENDED STARTING OFF WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH A DRY AND QUIET BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LOVELY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TUESDAY WE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FROM THERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES ZONAL WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP BUT TRENDING TOWARDS A WEEK OF SEASONAL MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 5-8 KNOTS. VFR BKN CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EXCEPTIONS BEING PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND BKN VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. 12Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. 00Z TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...VFR DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...NEILES

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