Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251818 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 218 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 118 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M 40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 611 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINALLY THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS VT/NY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUE/WED WITH MUCH NEEDED DRYING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. DESPITE THIS BRIEF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LARGE TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE WED NGT/THU THRU FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT DOESN`T APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS THIS PAST WEEK AND TEMPS COOLING FROM MID WEEK HIGHS BUT NOT AS COLD AS RECENT AS WELL.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY ...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES... LOWERING TO INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (2500-3000FT) OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS (PBG AND RUT BEING THE EXCEPTIONS) AFTER 11Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR (3500FT OR BETTER) FOR ALL AREAS AROUND 14Z. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD (15Z) COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTIAN LOCALS...BUT DON`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN ANY ONE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR TODAY...GIVING AWAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...STEADYING TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

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