Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.