Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 310237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW


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