Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW
RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST FOCUS TODAY WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS. CRNT WATER VAPOR
TRENDS SHOW DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ME...WITH NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBONS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. NEXT 5H VORT AND
MOISTURE IS CRNTLY OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WL DIVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NY/VT TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST BTV4KM AND NAM12 SHOW BEST 1000 TO 700MB RH AND OMEGA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE
NEK...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST QPF FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE
FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WL
MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...CHC IN THE NEK...AND
SCHC ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WL START AROUND 500 FEET
THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY JUMP TO 2800 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS LLVL
WARMING OCCURS. QPF WL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY <0.10 WITH SNOWFALL BTWN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO ABOVE
2500 FEET. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CPV AND PARTS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WL
MENTION HIGHS 35 TO 40 MTNS TO 45 TO 50F CPV/SLV...AND MID 50S VSF.
IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND...AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION SLOWLY FILLS AND WAA
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 6 DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD. PROGGED
85H TEMPS WARM FROM -9C TODAY...TO -2C BY 18Z SUNDAY...WHICH
SUPPORTS U30S TO MID 40S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK WEAKER ON SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SO ANTICIPATE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP. WILL MENTION CHC POPS NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES AND SCHC
ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT < 0.05...WITH ONLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SUMMITS. BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
LIFT OCCURS ON MONDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FINALLY RETURNING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND MENTION
LIKELY POPS NORTHERN MNTS WITH CHC POPS IN THE VALLEY. QPF WL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 0C...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...BUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MIXING. WL MENTION HIGHS L/M
40S MTNS TO M/U 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE
WARMER DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. LOWS WL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW
COOLER READINGS IN THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.