Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 354 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY...ALONG WITH SOME LIFT FROM WEAK WAA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND FORCING WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS. BEST RIBBON OF UVV`S AND DEEP 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATES THRU OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 12Z-21Z TODAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING POSSIBLE TWD EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND VERY LIGHT UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE NEK OF VT...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 3000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT JUMP TO SUMMIT LEVEL BY MIDDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS TREND TWD 0C. IF PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO COOL COLUMN A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP...TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WEAK S/W RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS BY TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A SLOW DRYING TREND FOR MID WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ROTATING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z WEDS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA WL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WOULD BE NEK AND NORTHERN MTNS NEAR JAY PEAK ON WEDS. THERMAL PROFILE WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY...AND +2C ON WEDS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING. STILL NOTICING ON GFS SOUNDINGS MID LVL MOISTURE BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME ON WEDS AFTN. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS ON WEDS...WITH 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AROUND 850MB TO THE SURFACE WL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S...WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH. THE PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...SO WINDS WL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM FRI/SAT. THIS MORNING`S GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH IN REGARD TO IMPACTS OF RAIN/WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL CAMPS SHOWING A MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. INDEED, LATEST HPC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER SOLUTIONS SHOWING PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION WILL BE FROM A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE WITH OUR PESKY MARITIME UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY IF YOU BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETEMINISTIC GUIDANCE. IF THIS PANS OUT IT`S HARD TO CONCEIVE A TUCKED IN COASTAL SYSTEM DIGGING NORTHWARD IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS. AS A RESULT I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. BRACKETING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MEAN WEAK RIDGING WED NT/THU AND AGAIN BY NEXT SAT NT/SUN AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. BLENDED 925-850 18Z TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES QUITE CLOSE TO LATEST EURO/GFS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 67 RANGE AND SEASONAL OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 35 TO 45.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATE SSW INTO THE REGION FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK TERMINAL THIS MORNING. CONDS TEND TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/PERIODS IFR TREND TO BKN/OVC VFR, WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS PERIOD. 12Z TUESDAY - 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH POSSIBLE MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. 12Z WEDNESDAY - 06Z THURSDAY...VFR IN WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR/MVFR AS SLOW-EVOLVING, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN FROM NEXT CLOSED LOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO

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