Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202352 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS ...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA. EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES 3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST- SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011- 016>019. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

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