Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 260725 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 325 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO 700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK 925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND +1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN CRNT THINKING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BEGINNING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING SO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW DOMINATING. WHILE I EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS LIKELY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS OR BELOW IN THE 50S. THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPS AROUND NORMAL IN THE 30S AND 40S. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY, LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN REGARDS TO HOW A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GFS CONTINUES TO GENERALLY ABSORB THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTO THE BROAD NORTHERN TROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES THE OPPOSITE AND CARVES OUT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPS A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA`S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN ALL YEAR AND MORE RECENTLY THE PAST MONTH, CAN`T REALLY BUY INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW. WHAT THIS WILL OFFER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CEILINGS STILL STUBBORNLY OVC BUT IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND MAY DIP INTO MVFR FOR A BIT OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY KMPV AND KSLK. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY...CAN`T RULE OUT INSTABILITY SHOWER BUT DON.T HAVE IN MOST TAFS AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME -SHRA FOR NRN AREAS BY 06Z MON AND LIGHT WINDS OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.