Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261831 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SEE A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AT THIS TIME MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK 925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND +1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN CRNT THINKING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER...ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND. DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS REGION. RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS (1500-3000FT) AFTER 03Z...THE WORST OF IT COMING AFTER 06Z. SLK WILL LOOK TO HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH IFR (0800FT) CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN AROUND 11Z, POSSIBLY EARLIER. ALL OTHER STATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS IN THE AREA AFTER 07Z...WITH BTV/MPV SEEING RAIN SHOWERS ON STATION AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 05-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR VERMONT.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LAHIFF/MV

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