Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041939 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 339 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY......RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY... SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY WITH RIBBON OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES IN THE 17% TO 25% RANGE...THINKING INITIAL MID LVL MOISTURE WITH FRONT WILL FALL AS VIRGA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY SATURATE ENOUGH ACROSS THE MTNS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE A SHADOW IN THE PRECIP FIELDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHERE WE WILL JUST MENTION CHC POPS. QPF WILL RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS IN THE DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS IN VT. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT WL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS. ALSO...WL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH CAPE VALUES <200 J/KG. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...EXPECTING MID 40S MTNS TOWNS TO MID 50S SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 323 PM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY...BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY SOMEHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING HOWEVER...AS 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. ALSO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN A BIT COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING INBETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MSS WHERE GUSTS 30-35 KTS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 00Z-03Z TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...WITH SOME LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT SLK. SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 05Z-10Z TUESDAY. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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`S WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY 7 PM TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OR TWO IN THE MTNS. THE WINDOW OF RAINFALL WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THIS DRIER AIR WILL DROP MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20% TO 30% RANGE ON TUESDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH. THE 60 TO 90 DAY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIP DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE RESULTED IN FINE FUELS BECOMING VERY DRY BELOW 2000 FEET...ACCORDING TO THE VERMONT DEPARTMENT OF PARKS AND REC AND NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. GIVEN THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN...THESE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 1144 AM EDT MONDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE ARE JUST 15-25 KNOT THRESHOLD. THOUGH LAKE TEMPERATURES LIMIT MIXING DEPTH, A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES PREFERENTIALLY ALONG SOUTH- FACING EXPOSURES. BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031- 034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV MARINE...LOCONTO

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