Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 210253 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA. EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES 3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST- SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VT...NONE. NY...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.