Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 062309 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 709 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY NEARS THE REGION...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 659 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPP20S COLDER VALLEYS TO L/M 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES MILDER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR A FEW COLDER SPOT LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS (KSLK)...THAT WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 309 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN LARGELY IN CONTROL. THUS LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). DEW POINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY (LOW-MID 30S) BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY WARMING TEMPERATURES...SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 15-25 PERCENT LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT MID 40S TO LOW 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...OPENING UP PARTS OF THE REGION TO SOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW... WITH WINDS PEAKING 10-15 KNOTS AT MOST...HIGHEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT TO ORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED TO MOST OF VT/NNY. WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY AND FRONTAL FEATURE NEAR-BY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PARTLY- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN. DEW POINTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE GIVES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT. BUT AS MENTIONED WINDS NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOSTLY 50-60F WITH A FEW 40S IN THE NEK/ADK AND LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 304 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MOST OF SATURDAY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 20C, RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S-M80S OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M60S-M70S WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A COASTAL LOW ABOUT THE SOUTHERN CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING MORE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRAVERSE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CLR. WINDS DYING DOWN FROM TERRAIN/LAKE INDUCED TO CALM TO VARIABLE. ONLY PLACES WITH SOME WIND WILL BE KRUT WITH SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE OUT OF THE HILLS, AND KMSS WITH SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE CONTINUING DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH FOR KRUT/KBTV/KPBG. KMPV/KSLK WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE, AND KMSS WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE SW ORIENTED ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... OOZ FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIGS IN A PASSING SHOWER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ONE AND TEN HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE...AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19TH...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15TH. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...HANSON FIRE WEATHER...MUCCILLI MARINE...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.