Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011432 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD CONCERNS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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