Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051431 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1031 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER ISN`T EXACTLY CLEAR THOUGH, AS HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT SAID, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IN HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST DO DEWPOINTS DROP. THERE`S A LOT OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS AT MANIWAKI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT BUFFALO. ONCE MIXING COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP READILY AS WELL. I`VE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND RELATED ACTIONS TAKEN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GIVEN EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER SOIL CONDITIONS...SO HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY`S TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT. LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECOND LOW PASSES EVEN CLOSER TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT SEEING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER ON SATURDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. WE ALSO HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY TODAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR VERMONT FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, IT WAS DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR VERMONT THROUGH 6PM TODAY TO ADDRESS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. FIRE WEATHER SECTION ISSUED EARLIER DETAILS STATE OF FUELS WELL AND IS BELOW... RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WAS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...SO THE REGION REMAINS QUITE DRY. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SO FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS ARE CRITICALLY LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUN...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FURTHER DRYING OF THE 1 AND 10 HOUR FUELS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. && .MARINE... AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON/WGH/LOCONTO MARINE...WGH

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