Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061356 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 956 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 954 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WARMING UP QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. ALREADY SEEING WIDESPREAD 60S AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S/40S. GOING FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE AND THIS LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 428 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ALREADY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER NAM MOS DEW POINTS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 428 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE LOWER NAM MOS DEW POINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO MIX DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES. GFS MODEL TRIES TO HINT AT SOME CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS DRY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF MODEL FOR FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RISING HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AGAIN EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS MODELS SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY...MOST LIKELY DRAPED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL BE A PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER. ALSO...TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BE ANOTHER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN SET UP. TROPICAL LOW INFLUENCES AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...KEEPING IT LIKELY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND TIME PERIOD DIFFERENTLY...BUT THEN COME CLOSER INTO LINE TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCED ALSO TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT PBG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BTWN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIGS IN A PASSING SHOWER SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THRU THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SOME LOCALIZED TERRAIN EFFECTS AT PBG AND RUTLAND. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 428 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ONE AND TEN HOUR FUELS ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION. FURTHER DRYING OF THESE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE...AND WITH THESE CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY. STATEWIDE BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF VERMONT UNTIL MAY 19TH...AND REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF NEW YORK UNTIL MAY 15TH. && .MARINE... AS OF 428 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BOATERS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD - IN THE 40S. SWIMMING EARLY IN THE SEASON IS DISCOURAGED AS IMMERSION FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME COULD PRODUCE HYPOTHERMIA GIVEN THESE WATER TEMPERATURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES FIRE WEATHER...WGH MARINE...WGH

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