Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181101 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 701 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 700 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE MORNING, OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS MORNING, TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SPC SREF CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROGS AND SOME MARGINALLY NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS ON LATEST HI-RES MODELS, BUT OVERALL THINK THIS WILL JUST AMOUNT TO A FEW RUMBLES HEAR AND THERE. IN ADDITION, DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT COULD AID IN SOME GRAUPEL AND/OR SMALL HAIL IN MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS. OTHER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR TODAY WILL BE DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED, AND WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY SURFACE FUELS. ANYONE PLANNING OPEN BURNING TODAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY AS TO MITIGATE ANY FIRES SPREADING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WINDS ABATE AND SKIES TREND CLEAR, WITH 925-850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C SUPPORTING A CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DRY AND SEASONAL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TURNS SOUTH FOR THE LATER HALF MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 925-850MB JET OF 40-60KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THINKING GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS TOP OUT AROUND 40MPH WHICH IS SUB-ADVISORY, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 331 AM EDT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW- MOVING...BROAD/CLOSED 500MB LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THRU THE S-SE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATE WILL BRING BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT 06-18Z TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED 70-80 POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH QPF AMTS 0.20-0.40" POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM WITH LOW OVERCAST AND RAINFALL...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTN HRS. HAVE INDICATED MID-UPR 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN VT. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WED-FRI. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY CARRIED 30-40 POPS THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGH WED-FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S...AND LOCALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS 16-21Z...POSSIBLY IMPACTING PBG/BTV/MPV. HAVE CARRIED VCSH AT THIS POINT...WITH LOCAL TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR -SHRA AT MPV WHERE GREATEST PROSPECT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EXISTS. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BECOMING WESTERLY WITH MIXING LATER THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS FLOW SHIFTS MORE NWLY 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE AND WITH DEEP PBL MIXING. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH AND DIMINISHING SLOWLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY - 03Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 03Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW-NE. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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